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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29261/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-19T17:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:20240216T0804
Radial velocity (km/s):737
Longitude (deg):45
Latitude (deg):24
Half-angular width (deg):45

Notes: Grazing impact 19-Feb 1700UT. Low confidence, with more the the CME passing above the Earth.

Lead Time: 35.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-02-18T05:44Z

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